Many recent acts of aggression have caused the relations
between Sunnis and Shiites in Iraq to deteriorate. The most significant act was the bombing of Al-Askari Mosque, one of the holiest Shiite shrines, in Samara in February 2006. After that incident a vicious cycle of revenge killings started in the country. The last nail was hammered by the Iraqi government when Saddam Hussein was hanged. The manner of his execution has created more rifts between Sunni and Shiites. In the past, Sunnis have accused Shiite dominated Police and Army forces for aiding with the Shiite militant groups responsible for the killings of Sunnis. The most powerful Shiite Militia is called Mehdi Army, controlled by radical Shiite cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr. The Shiite guards who hanged Saddam Hussein taunted him and shouted “Long live Muqtada”. It is a clear proof of their affiliation with such a person, whose army is involved in killings of innocent people, which no one can deny easily. Now the gap is so wide that it is leading towards a division of Iraq.

If Iraq is divided it will be partitioned into three parts of Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds independent territories. The short term affects would not suit US interests in the region. Sunni area would certainly become a hotbed for Insurgents, Al-Qaeda, Jihadi and Militant movements against the USA.

Shiite dominated government in Iraq is pro-American but that does not reflect the mood of all Shiite populations in Iraq. In fact Iran has a great influence over Iraqi Shiites. Iran is considered as the greatest enemy of USA, and Israel so things would never be so smooth under Iranian influence.

Independent Kurd area would have its own affects for the region. Kurd population is mainly spread in Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria. With a population of about 35 million people, Kurds make up the largest ethnic group in the world who don’t have a separate country of their own. About 55% of Kurds live in Turkey, 20% each in Iraq and Iran and 5% in Syria. Kurds have a long desire to have their own independent country called Kurdistan. A separate homeland for Kurds in Iraq would also motivate uprising of Kurds in other parts for a free sovereign country. Turkey has a long history of troubles in Kurdish dominated areas of Turkey. That would mean more problems for Turkey.  Turkey has strong bilateral relations with USA and among the few Muslim countries who have formal diplomatic relations with Israel. Turkey would never like that to happen otherwise it will certainly affect its relation with USA and West.

So apparently it looks that USA will try its best to stop any partition of Iraq.  But that’s only one side of the picture; there are other aspects of Iraqi division also.  The division of Iraq in the long term could prove very useful for USA especially for Israel.

The partitioning of Iraq will certainly bring more enmity between Sunni and Shiite Muslims in all over the Arab world. Iran is considered as leader of Shiite Muslim countries and Saudi Arabia is considered as leader of Sunni Muslim Countries in the region. Both never had friendly relations. The recent clips of the Saddam Hussein execution have created anger in Sunni Muslim countries and blame of that was openly put on Shiite dominated government of Iraq.

In last year’s war between Hezbollah (A Shiite militant group in Lebanon) and Israel, Saudi Arabia and other Sunni Muslim Arab nations blamed Hezbollah for the provocation and starting of the war while Iran and Syria backed the Hezbollah movement by all means.

Survival of Israel is mainly due to the fact that there are many differences in Arab countries which prevented them to form an effective united-front against Israel. Though every Arab state is against Israel, they remained more suspicious about each other. So Israelis would like Sunni Shiite enmity to continue because it has always helped them and will certainly help them in the future also.

As Israel is considered to be the closest ally, United States has always backed the actions which resulted to favor Israel. So if the partition of Iraq will suite Israel than it will never be put out of the cards.

The other most significant long term affect would be of Kurd independent movement in the region. Kurds will never sit idle after getting an Independent territory in Iraq. Their ultimate goal is to create a sovereign county for all the Kurds in the region. It would bring more troubles for Turkey, Iran and Syria as the proposed Kurdistan could only become reality when these countries lose their territories. The USA would never mind such a kind of uprisings in Iran and Syria. Though Turkey is considered a friend, the Kurds are proving even stronger alleys. In fact a free Kurdistan would be the most pro-Western state after Israel in the Middle East.

One must also not forget that in recent past there were calls of a new Middle East from the USA and Israel and if Iraq divided there will be a new Middle East. The change will bring some far-fetching consequences for all the Arab world and Turkey and it seems that those changes will not prove good for any of those countries.